Retailers Expect a Record Holiday Season and a Thinner Seasonal Workforce to Run It
The National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday sales will climb about 4.2% to nearly $1 trillion, even as retailers plan to hire the smallest seasonal workforce in years.
The National Retail Federation is projecting holiday-season retail sales will rise roughly 4.2% from last year, approaching $1 trillion, with inflation accounting for part of that growth rather than pure volume. At the same time, retailers are expected to hire only 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, a notably sluggish number for a season that is supposed to be setting records.
That gap between record sales and record-thin hiring is becoming the defining tension of this holiday season, echoed in Dick's Sporting Goods' own 20% cut to seasonal headcount and in Challenger, Gray & Christmas's broader forecast of a 2.5% nationwide decline in holiday hires. Retailers are betting that automation, AI tools, and existing staff can absorb demand that used to require armies of temporary workers.
For shoppers, the practical upshot is a season that looks the same on the surface, with the same doorbusters and the same inflated spending numbers, but runs on a visibly leaner staff behind the registers and in the back rooms. Whether that is a durable efficiency gain or a brittle bet on a smooth season remains the open question heading into Black Friday.
Source: Retail Dive
Kyle Duford, Founder & Editor, BRNDWIRE. More from Kyle →
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